Grid Scenario Studio

The Grid Scenario Studio models counterfactual grid operation using illustrative weekly profiles calibrated to balancing authority dispatch patterns. When measured grid data ingestion pipelines land, historical hourly generation will be drawn from balancing authority public feeds and EIA Form 930 reporting. The dispatch engine strictly preserves energy balance at every hour ($T=168$ for full weekly runs).

• Marginal Merit-Order Displacement: Added solar and storage generation displaces thermal peakers and natural gas combined-cycle units first. Zero-marginal-cost clean resources (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar) remain undisturbed unless thermal generation is entirely eliminated.
• Summer Solar Bell-Curve: Hourly production is modeled via summer capacity factors peaking at midday (~0.83 peak at 13:00 local standard time, zero during night hours) calibrated to NREL National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) profiles.
• Dual-Limit Battery Topology: Anchor Scenario 2 models an unexported behind-meter home battery charged exclusively from solar production above the single-inverter legal limit (1,200 W). Discharge is restricted to the evening duck-curve ramp (17:00 to 22:00) with an 85% AC-to-AC round-trip efficiency factor based on the NREL Annual Technology Baseline (ATB).
• Policy Connection: Statutory watt limits and adoption baselines directly reflect pending or enacted state legislation tracked in our verified legal database (California SB 868 and New York S.8512).